Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026?
US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East21dManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 88.9%
Forecasters
21
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleJul 31, 26, 3:43 AM UTCOct 1, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.
- A ceasefire counts even if it later collapses.
- The question is whether one takes effect inside the window - not whether it holds.
- RESOLUTION SOURCES (priority order):
- English Wikipedia, "2026 Iran war" - whether the article records a US-Iran ceasefire taking effect within the window
- Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com)
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 89% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? resolve?
- Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? is scheduled to resolve on October 1, 2026.
- How is Will a new US-Iran ceasefire take effect before October 1, 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between the United States and Iran TAKES EFFECT at any point from 2026-08-01 through 2026-09-30 inclusive, with both governments publicly acknowledging it.