KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Yes 91%
Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$416.1
Low liquidityBid / Ask
89.0% / 95.0%
Spread
6.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Jul 9, 26, 6:01 PM UTCOct 2, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill Alberta announce a minimum wage increase in 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
If Ontario’s general minimum wage increase to C$17.95 per hour takes effect as scheduled on October 1, 2026 after Issuance and before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Government of Ontario
- Only reporting from Government of Ontario qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Open markets
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+3.0pt86.1%
- Yes-3.0pt13.9%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $253.8K
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jul 1, 2027-11.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-19.0pt35%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-20.0pt35%
+7 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt19.8%
- $1.75T–$2.0T18.9%
- $1.5T–$1.75T17.9%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- How many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- Conference to Win the National Championship
- Will California authorize an alternative wage or other qualifying relief from goat-herder wage and overtime obligations before Oct 1, 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will the Senate vote on the Clarity Act?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Ontario’s minimum wage increase take effect on October 1??
- Kalshi prices Yes at 91% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Ontario’s minimum wage increase take effect on October 1? resolve?
- Will Ontario’s minimum wage increase take effect on October 1? is scheduled to resolve on October 2, 2026.
- How is Will Ontario’s minimum wage increase take effect on October 1? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If Ontario’s general minimum wage increase to C$17.95 per hour takes effect as scheduled on October 1, 2026 after Issuance and before Oct 2, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.