Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.8%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 23, 11:45 PM UTCJan 2, 49, 4:59 AM UTC
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PolymarketRules
If a candidate who polls at over 20% in a Democratic or Republican primary or in a general election according to polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight (or suitable alternative if both are defunct) uses the adjective "based" to describe something or someone, including themselves, in official communications, resolve to YES.
- Otherwise, resolve to NO.
