Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 69.8%
Forecasters
42
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleAug 5, 23, 11:45 PM UTCJan 2, 49, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
If a candidate who polls at over 20% in a Democratic or Republican primary or in a general election according to polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight (or suitable alternative if both are defunct) uses the adjective "based" to describe something or someone, including themselves, in official communications, resolve to YES.
- Otherwise, resolve to NO.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048? resolve?
- Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048? is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2049.
- How is Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If a candidate who polls at over 20% in a Democratic or Republican primary or in a general election according to polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight (or suitable alternative if both are defunct) uses the adjective "based" to describe something or someone, including themselves, in official communications, resolve to YES.