What are the current odds for Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 97.8% as of October 24, 2026.

Paper trade this

Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?

One-OffScience4y

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 97.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 7 minutes ago

Apr 29, 26, 4:41 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Related Markets

Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.

Which of the following Millennium Prize Problems will be solved before the end of 2030?

Manifold Markets

Which of Landau's Problems will be solved next?

Manifold Markets

How many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030?

Manifold Markets

All Millennium Prize Problems solved before May 2027?

Manifold Markets

When will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?

Kalshi

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Polymarket

Rules

https://www.erdosproblems.com/

There are 1217 problems in the database of which 529 (43%) have been solved as of market creation

Report a data issue with this market

Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?

Will 50% or more of the Erdos problems be solved at the end of 2030?

Open markets

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?

Frequently asked questions

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Open markets

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 23, 2026?

Marathon Fusion's high-rate gold alchemy confirmed by which date?

What will the biggest earthquake be on October 24, 2026?

Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?