Current community forecast
At least 2 99%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
5
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+49.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleSep 13, 26, 4:13 AM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which of the following Millennium Prize Problems will be solved before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
KalshiHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve based on the official status of the Millennium Prize Problems as determined by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) on its official website: claymath.org/millennium-problems.
- Each option is independent and will resolve to YES if the cumulative number of officially solved Millennium Prize Problems (including the Poincaré conjecture) meets or exceeds the specified threshold by December 31, 2030, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Solved" means that someone either proves the statement or proves it false / comes up with a counterexample
- The options will resolve independently, so if 3 problems are solved, the "the named outcome" option will resolve to yes.
- Note: If more problems are added to the Millennium Prize Problems list, I will add more options.
- Background (written by AI)
Open markets
AIKALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $73.6K
- 24h Vol
- $73.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-6.0pt81%
+9 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.3pt68.3%
- ChatGPT+0.2pt16.4%
- Gemini+0.1pt6.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $11M
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,-0.5pt85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.4pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $31.6K
- 24h Vol
- $31.6K
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices At least 2 at 99% as of September 15, 2026.
- When does How many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030? resolve?
- How many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is How many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve based on the official status of the Millennium Prize Problems as determined by the Clay Mathematics Institute (CMI) on its official website: claymath.org/millennium-problems.