Widespread reports of ICE or DHS agents guarding polling stations during Trump II
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 59.8%
Forecasters
6
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 39 minutes ago
Aug 15, 25, 4:17 AM UTCJan 20, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
Resolves YES if before Jan 20, 2029, credible reporting shows DHS personnel (including ICE, CBP, FPS, or USSS) were stationed to provide an ongoing security/guarding presence at in-person polling places (including early-voting sites) in at least five U.S. states on the same election day.
- “Guarding” means posted at or immediately outside the entrance as a security presence under DHS direction, not merely responding to a specific call.
- Verification will rely on AP or Reuters, or on DHS/agency orders or press statements; alternatively, two or more of: NYT, Washington Post, WSJ, CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC, NPR, or PBS.
- If DHS officially announces such a deployment, that alone is sufficient.
- Otherwise NO on Jan 21, 2029.
- Excludes: state/local police; DOJ Civil Rights monitors; presence at ballot-counting centers or election offices that are not polling places; isolated incident responses.
