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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district
Manifold Markets

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district

PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent) 6.8%
Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters

4

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 6 days ago

Stale
Jun 18, 25, 2:36 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Marie Alvarado-Gil (incumbent)7%

Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (ballotpedia.org)
  • California's 4th State Senate district encompasses parts of the northeastern Central Valley, the central Sierra Nevada, and Death Valley, including counties such as Stanislaus, Calaveras, Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Alpine, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Madera, Mono, and Inyo.
  • The district is currently represented by Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil, a Democrat who assumed office on December 5, 2022.

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Rules

Resolution criteria

Manifold Markets
  • This market will resolve to the candidate who is officially declared the winner of the 2026 election for California's 4th State Senate district.
  • The outcome will be determined based on the certified election results published by the California Secretary of State.
  • (ballotpedia.org)
  • California's 4th State Senate district encompasses parts of the northeastern Central Valley, the central Sierra Nevada, and Death Valley, including counties such as Stanislaus, Calaveras, Amador, El Dorado, Placer, Alpine, Tuolumne, Mariposa, Madera, Mono, and Inyo.
  • The district is currently represented by Senator Marie Alvarado-Gil, a Democrat who assumed office on December 5, 2022.