Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Samuel Alito 60%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 22, 10:23 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.2%
0.1%
0%
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on the named outcome
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be??
- Manifold Markets prices Samuel Alito at 60% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be? resolve?
- Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2031.
- How is Who will the next SCOTUS Justice to leave the court be? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on the named outcome