Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecast
Samuel Alito 58.8%Leader of 10 outcomes
Samuel Alito 58.8%Forecasters
40
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.2 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleNov 6, 22, 10:23 PM UTCJan 1, 31, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Republicans keep the Senate in 2026, will a Supreme Court justice leave the Court before January 3, 2029?
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PolymarketNext Justice to leave the US Supreme Court
FutuurRules
If it's multiple justices simultaneously, this market will resolve to an per-person split of all correct answers (eg: if there were 11 Justices and all 11 left, it would resolve with each current member AND 2 shares on the named outcome
