Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?
One-OffPoliticsUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJ D Vance 53.8%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
70
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 25, 10:30 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Democratic primary for President?
Manifold MarketsWho will win at least one state in the 2028 Republican Party presidential primaries?
Manifold MarketsKentucky Governor Republican Primary Winner (2027)
PolymarketMARCO RUBIO WILL WIN 2028 REPUBLICAN PRIMARY?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 Republican primary?
Manifold MarketsWill Republican Primary Winner win the Florida 10th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRules
Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE.
- Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states.
- This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count.
- Must get over 5% to count.
- If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count.
- A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes.
