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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Politics
  3. Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?
Manifold Markets

Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?

One-OffPoliticsUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsNo KYC
Current community forecast
Manifold Markets
J D Vance 53.2%
Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters

69

Question type

multiple choice

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated yesterday

Stale
Dec 12, 25, 10:30 PMDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

J D Vance53%

Rules

Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE.

Manifold Markets
  • Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states.
  • This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count.
  • Must get over 5% to count.
  • If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count.
  • A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes.

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Rules

Resolves Yes to whoever finishes 1st or 2nd in a Republican primary for a STATE.

Manifold Markets
  • Non states like DC, Guam and the US Virgin Islands don’t count as states.
  • This is based on who receives the most votes in the state, delegates don’t count.
  • Must get over 5% to count.
  • If someone wins 98% and a write candidate gets 0.4% in 2nd, doesn’t count.
  • A write in candidate getting 2nd with 5.1% would be enough for resolving yes.