Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastGavin Newsom 71.6%Leader of 19 outcomes
Forecasters
19
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-3.7 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleDec 12, 25, 10:34 PM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will finish top 2 in any state for the 2028 Republican primary for president?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES for any candidate who finishes in the top 2 (first or second place) in any single state's Democratic primary election.(by popular vote, not delegates) The 2028 presidential election is scheduled for November 7, 2028, with primaries occurring in the months prior.
- Resolution will be determined by official state primary results published by state election authorities and major news outlets covering the 2028 Democratic primary.
- Note: Democrats have no clear presidential primary calendar for 2028, so the specific states and timing remain to be determined by the DNC.
- Must be a STATE!
- Democrats Abroad,American Samoa, Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, US Virgin Islands,