Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 50.8%+0.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
42
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 minutes ago
Nov 3, 25, 5:50 PM UTCNov 11, 28, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Given the Republican candidate wins the 2024 presidency, will the real median household income be more than $74,580?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk endorse a republican candidate in the next US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next Republican candidate for 2028?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRules
Who will be the Republican Party's official nominee for the 2028 presidential election?
- Context: Vice President the named outcome and President the named outcome are the two leading potential Republican candidates for 2028.
- Vance currently leads in primary polling, but Trump has not ruled out running despite constitutional term limits.
- Resolution: This market resolves to whichever candidate is officially nominated by the Republican Party at the 2028 Republican National Convention or through the formal RNC nomination process.
- If neither Vance nor Trump is nominated, the market resolves to "Other."
- Sources for verification:
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who going to be the Republican 2028 candidate??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 51% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Who going to be the Republican 2028 candidate? resolve?
- Who going to be the Republican 2028 candidate? is scheduled to resolve on November 11, 2028.
- How is Who going to be the Republican 2028 candidate? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Who will be the Republican Party's official nominee for the 2028 presidential election?