Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastJD Vance 52%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
11
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 6 hours ago
StaleMay 31, 26, 2:08 AM UTCJul 1, 28, 4:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who going to be the Republican 2028 candidate?
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Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
(EN) The 2028 Republican primary is shaping up as the first true post-Trump succession battle inside the modern GOP.
- With President Donald Trump term-limited, the central question is whether Republican voters choose a direct heir to the MAGA movement or pivot toward a different conservative coalition.
- (ES) Las primarias republicanas de 2028 se perfilan como la primera verdadera batalla por la sucesión dentro del Partido Republicano moderno tras la era Trump.
- Con el mandato del presidente Donald Trump limitado, la cuestión central es si los votantes republicanos elegirán a un heredero directo del movimiento MAGA o se decantarán por una coalición conservadora diferente.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $704M
- 24h Vol
- $804.1K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.1M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.4M
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be the next Republican candidate for 2028??
- Manifold Markets prices JD Vance at 52% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be the next Republican candidate for 2028? resolve?
- Who will be the next Republican candidate for 2028? is scheduled to resolve on July 1, 2028.
- How is Who will be the next Republican candidate for 2028? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: (EN) The 2028 Republican primary is shaping up as the first true post-Trump succession battle inside the modern GOP.