Which Trump 2028 Term prediction category will Nate Silver perform best relative to Manifold?
US PoliticsOne-Off3yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastSilicon Valley (0 of 9 Resolved) 44.5%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
3
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleMar 18, 25, 3:19 PM UTCFeb 16, 30, 4:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
Originally from this Article:
- https://www.natesilver.net/p/113-predictions-for-trumps-second
- Overall Competition:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/StopPunting/trumps-second-term-will-manifold-ou?play=true)That question (and this question) uses the time locked percentages from Manifold which was two weeks after Nates' article was published (and is why some questions are excluded).
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- Live Manifold Tracking Market of Individual Questions: