Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 4th District?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2026 US Midterms1mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastRepublican Party 96.2%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleOct 6, 26, 5:54 AM UTCDec 13, 26, 12:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 6th District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 5th District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 3rd District?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Louisiana's 2nd District?
Manifold MarketsWill Cleo Fields win the Louisiana 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExWill Christian Johnson win the Louisiana 6th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRules
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Louisiana's 4th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 open U.S. Representative primary if a candidate wins a majority of the votes; otherwise the December 12, 2026 open general election between the top two, whatever their parties (Act 7 of 2026; Louisiana SOS calendar).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by the named outcome or the named outcome who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
