Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo consensus 85%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleMay 9, 22, 3:43 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 1:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which interpretation of Quantum Mechanics is closest to the truth?
Manifold MarketsWill a theory of everything (a theory that unites relativity and quantum mechanics) be found in physics by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhat'll be the conclusions of a large study into the ease of learning quantum mechanics with different interpretations?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves to one if it is universally accepted (except a tiny fringe), otherwise is weighted based on something believable as to the current state of thinking, like something published in quanta magazine for example.
- Close date updated to 2030-01-01 12:00 pm
Open markets
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+5.3pt55%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $263.3K
- 24h Vol
- $145.6K
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 20275%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $33.3M
- 24h Vol
- $31.5K
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030+17.0pt44%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $126.7K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $6K
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+7.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-10.0pt7.7%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030?
- Manifold Markets prices No consensus at 85% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030 resolve?
- Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030 is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2030.
- How is Which interpretation of quantum mechanics will be accepted by 2030 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves to one if it is universally accepted (except a tiny fringe), otherwise is weighted based on something believable as to the current state of thinking, like something published in quanta magazine for example.