Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastIran 100%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
20
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 27 minutes ago
Mar 3, 26, 9:34 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolves based on trusted news sources.
- If unclear I will do my best to resolve fairly; I will not trade on this market.
- For the purposes of this market, only armed forces part of the country's government (at any level) in question count.
- For instance, Iranian proxies don't count unless the option in question includes such, but a local policeman killing a US soldier does.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- December 31+4.5pt33%
- October 31+4.0pt21%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.6M
- 24h Vol
- $393.8K
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $67.9M
- 24h Vol
- $389.8K
POLYMARKETTrump x Greenland deal signed by which date?
- September 25+5.7pt99%
- December 31+1.9pt99%
- September 23+10.2pt98%
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+1.4pt64%
- October 31+4.0pt42%
- September 30+3.5pt13%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIUS-Iran nuclear deal?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt37%
- Before Jan 1, 2028-3.0pt28%
- Before Feb 1, 2027+4.0pt12%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- September 25+3.6pt96%
- September 30+6.0pt90%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $178.2K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which countries/entities will kill US soldiers in 2026? [Add Answers]?
- Manifold Markets prices Iran at 100% as of September 22, 2026.
- When does Which countries/entities will kill US soldiers in 2026? [Add Answers] resolve?
- Which countries/entities will kill US soldiers in 2026? [Add Answers] is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Which countries/entities will kill US soldiers in 2026? [Add Answers] settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves based on trusted news sources.