Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastEstonia 18.1%Leader of 12 outcomes
Forecasters
25
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 9 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 25, 7:31 PM UTCDec 31, 30, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Russia invade a new country by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade another country in 2026?
PolymarketWill Russia invade any NATO country before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia invade a NATO country before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketRules
An invasion involves forceful entry of ground troops into an occupied and defended territory.
- Disputes over unoccupied islands, fishing or deep-sea mining rights, etc. don't count.
- Bombing, drones, saboteurs, assassins don't count.
- If the Danish were to trade Greenland to Russia to keep the the named outcome from taking it, that doesn't count.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prices Estonia at 18% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030? resolve?
- Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2030.
- How is Which countries will Russia invade by the end of 2030? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: An invasion involves forceful entry of ground troops into an occupied and defended territory.