Which Trump allies will become Trump critics (or otherwise break from Trump) by the midterms?
15.8 pts (24h)US Politics1moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastTucker Carlson 96.9%+15.8ptLeader of 21 outcomes
Forecasters
107
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+15.8 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Nov 10, 24, 7:17 AM UTCNov 4, 26, 4:59 AM UTC
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Simple disagreement is not enough to resolve YES - it has to be big enough of a split that one could call them a "trump critic." If I see any of them identified as "trump critic," or otherwise splitting from team Trump in a significant way, that'd be enough to resolve YES.
- Getting fired and then going on CNN to dish out some juicy dirt would also be enough, for example.
- Basically - who's gonna burn some friendships?
- Please do not submit anyone who can already be characterized as a "trump critic," or who has already split from Trump's team due to criticism.
- This market's resolution is subjective, so I will not bet on this market.
- In the case that I am unable to resolve this market, I leave it in the hands of any moderator without any shares on this market.
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which Trump allies will become Trump critics (or otherwise break from Trump) by the midterms??
- Manifold Markets prices Tucker Carlson at 97% as of September 21, 2026.
- When does Which Trump allies will become Trump critics (or otherwise break from Trump) by the midterms? resolve?
- Which Trump allies will become Trump critics (or otherwise break from Trump) by the midterms? is scheduled to resolve on November 4, 2026.
- How is Which Trump allies will become Trump critics (or otherwise break from Trump) by the midterms? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Simple disagreement is not enough to resolve YES - it has to be big enough of a split that one could call them a "trump critic." If I see any of them identified as "trump critic," or otherwise splitting from team Trump in a significant way, that'd be enough to resolve YES.