Current community forecast
He will not become president at all (as of the 2032 election.) 60.9%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
65
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleNov 13, 24, 4:29 AM UTCJan 1, 33, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - The question refers to the first time JD Vance becomes president.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- Update 2025-11-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If JD Vance is elected president but does not take office for any reason, the market will resolve to "He will not become president at all (as of the 2032 election)."
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When, if at all, will JD Vance become president??
- Manifold Markets prices He will not become president at all (as of the 2032 election.) at 61% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When, if at all, will JD Vance become president? resolve?
- When, if at all, will JD Vance become president? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2033.
- How is When, if at all, will JD Vance become president? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-12-01 (PST): - The question refers to the first time JD Vance becomes president.