Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast2028 42.5%Leader of 8 outcomes
Forecasters
4
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 11 hours ago
StaleOct 19, 25, 6:39 AM UTCDec 30, 31, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the next country to join the European Union be Montenegro?
Manifold MarketsNo new countries join the European Union (EU) in 2026
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to join the European Union?
Manifold MarketsHow many of the negotiating chapters required to join the EU will Montenegro have closed at the end of 2026?
FutuurWill the European Union (EU) block X (Twitter) in 2026?
FutuurWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRules
Resolves on the date of Montenegro's accession to the European Union.
- If Montenegro ceases to exist, resolves at the last successor state to join the EU.
- If Montenegro hasn't jointed the EU by the end of 2031, resolves at the named outcome.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for When will Montenegro join the European Union??
- Manifold Markets prices 2028 at 43% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does When will Montenegro join the European Union? resolve?
- When will Montenegro join the European Union? is scheduled to resolve on December 30, 2031.
- How is When will Montenegro join the European Union? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves on the date of Montenegro's accession to the European Union.