Current community forecast
Heart Attack 38.2%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
103
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 24, 8:31 PM UTCJan 1, 41, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Assassination Definition Update:
- Any homicide will be considered as an assassination, regardless of whether it occurs while Trump is president or after his presidency.
- Motive discussions are not required for the determination of assassination.
Open markets
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
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+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
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+38 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for What will be Trump's cause of death??
- Manifold Markets prices Heart Attack at 38% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does What will be Trump's cause of death? resolve?
- What will be Trump's cause of death? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2041.
- How is What will be Trump's cause of death? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Update 2025-03-04 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Assassination Definition Update: