Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDemocrat 60%Leader of 3 outcomes
Forecasters
8
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
+0.9 pts
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 2, 26, 7:41 PM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Brazil 2026 election have the same outcome as the US 2024 election?
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Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the 2026 US Senate election in South Dakota?
PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 US Senate election in South Carolina?
PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Kentucky?
PredictItWhich party will win the 2026 US Senate election in Illinois?
PredictItRules
Republican: Resolves YES if the nominee of the Republican Party wins the presidency.
- Democrat: Resolves YES if the nominee of the Democratic Party wins the presidency.
- Third-Party: Resolves YES if any candidate who is not the nominee of the Republican or Democratic Party (including Independents, Libertarians, Green Party candidates, etc.) wins the presidency.
- If the election is delayed, the market will remain open until the election is resolved.
- If the election is canceled, or the office of the President is abolished or structured such that there is no single winning candidate, the market will resolve as N/A.
