Current community forecast
Hodge conjecture solved by June 2027 71.9%Leader of 14 outcomes
Forecasters
106
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleSep 9, 26, 12:10 AM UTCJan 1, 29, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
A problem is considered solved if it is deemed solved by a majority consensus of the most expert mathematicians, according to my best impressions, to avoid resolving on technicalities.
- For example, for the Odd Perfect Numbers question, by my current understanding of the statement, proving that an odd perfect number exists (including via a non-constructive proof) will count as a disproof of the conjecture and thus solved.
- "by June 2027" means "by EoM June 2027".
- Same for years.
- Poincaré and NS count toward ≥4 and ≥6.
- For the option the named outcome, saturated means 100% excluding the problems deemed impossible.