Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 36.2%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
7
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Apr 25, 26, 3:13 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Who will be President on Election Day 2028? (Add answers.)
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Manifold Markets[Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25)
Manifold MarketsWill any independent or 3rd party candidate win a House or Senate race in 2026?
KalshiWhich Senate Swing States will Republicans win?
PolymarketRules
The market resolves to whichever third party receives the most electoral votes, and if that is a tie, whichever party receives highest percentage of the popular vote in the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- Results will be determined by official FEC data and major news outlets reporting final vote tallies.
- If a party changes its name but stays basically the same party, it will be considered the same party.
- If someone runs as an Independent, they can be added to this list.