Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
Donald Trump 73.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Forecasters
33
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleJul 21, 24, 11:44 PM UTCNov 8, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.5%
0.5%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What 3rd Party will preform best in the 2028 presidential election [Add Answers]
Manifold Markets🗣️Who will run for president in the 2028 election? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold Markets[Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25)
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $703.9M
- 24h Vol
- $810.8K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701M
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.1M
- 24h Vol
- $547.7K
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 more outcomes
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Who will be President on Election Day 2028? (Add answers.)?
- Manifold Markets prices Donald Trump at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Who will be President on Election Day 2028? (Add answers.) resolve?
- Who will be President on Election Day 2028? (Add answers.) is scheduled to resolve on November 8, 2028.