Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033?
EuropeOne-OffBusiness & Corporate6yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.8%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleJun 12, 26, 5:01 PM UTCDec 31, 32, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2032, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, or the United States enacts a national/federal law requiring individuals with wealth above USD 1 billion equivalent to pay at least 1.0% of their wealth each year.
- The law may be structured as a direct wealth tax or as a top-up minimum tax.
- Under a top-up design, income taxes paid for the same year may count toward the 1.0% minimum.
- The wealth measure must not exempt or specially discount shares or ownership interests in active businesses.
- Inspired by Gabriel Zucman’s G20 blueprint: https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/report-g20.pdf
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033? resolve?
- Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2032.
- How is Wealth tax: Will a G7 country enact a 1% billionaire minimum tax before 2033? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2032, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, or the United States enacts a national/federal law requiring individuals with wealth above USD 1 billion equivalent to pay at least 1.0% of their wealth each year.