What are the current odds for Was the Chinese balloon actually a spy balloon??

Manifold Markets prices Yes at 79.2% as of November 4, 2026.

How is Was the Chinese balloon actually a spy balloon? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_China_balloon_incident

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibrated

Current community forecast

Yes 79.2%

Forecasters

104

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 19 minutes ago

Feb 5, 23, 4:02 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 6:00 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_China_balloon_incident

Resolves once China and/or the US declassifies or leaks enough information for me to be highly confident one way or the other.
It does not matter whether it was activly spying on the US, or intended to be doing so.
Only whether the equipment inside and intention of its construction was to be able to spy on some country.
(As opposed to a weather balloon or hobbyist balloon.)
In the event that its origin is discovered to not be the Chinise government, this resolves NO.