Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDelcy Rodríguez remains as acting president of Venezuela through 15 February 2026 100%Leader of 9 outcomes
Forecasters
32
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 5, 26, 7:34 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
100%
0%
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
World Conflict Prop Bets 2025-2027 [High Liquidity]
Manifold MarketsWill the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026 be related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Venezuela become 51st state?
PolymarketVenezuela de facto leader end of 2026?
PolymarketU.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
PolymarketRules
Please add more answers!
- In this market, "by 31 March 2026" is inclusive — if it happens on 31 March, it resolves YES.
- Markets with specific deadlines will be resolved according to their deadlines in US Eastern Time.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.8%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21.2%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.8pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.7M
- 24h Vol
- $487.2K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.6pt48.3%
- October 31-1.0pt29.2%
- September 30-3.0pt11.7%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+3.0pt80%
- September 18+2.5pt75%
- September 11+12.0pt71%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $111.1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
POLYMARKETNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- UNRWA+1.9pt9%
- Yulia Navalnaya8%
- International Court of Justice+0.9pt6%
+17 more outcomes
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US–Venezuela conflict prop bets?
- Manifold Markets prices Delcy Rodríguez remains as acting president of Venezuela through 15 February 2026 at 100% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does US–Venezuela conflict prop bets resolve?
- US–Venezuela conflict prop bets is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US–Venezuela conflict prop bets settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Please add more answers!