US provides military aid to Russia before January 20, 2029
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 79.4%
Forecasters
24
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingMar 11, 25, 3:37 PM UTCJan 20, 29, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market resolves YES if the United States government provides any form of military aid to Russia during Donald Trump's second presidential term (January 20, 2025 - January 20, 2029).
- Military aid includes weapons, ammunition, military equipment, training, intelligence sharing specifically for military purposes, or direct financial assistance explicitly for military spending.
- Resolution will be based on official US government announcements, or credible news reports from major outlets (e.g., Reuters, AP, NYT, WSJ), or official Russian government acknowledgments of receiving such aid.
- Sources for tracking US foreign military aid:
- US State Department Bureau of Political-Military Affairs
- US Department of Defense News
