Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97.6%
Forecasters
43
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 minutes ago
Jan 3, 26, 8:51 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 5:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Xi dies while in office, and Trump dies while not in office
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Donald Trump dies at any point during the calendar year 2026.
- Resolution will be based on confirmation from major news outlets (AP, Reuters, BBC, etc.) or official government sources.
- The market resolves NO if Trump survives through December 31, 2026.
- Trump is currently 79 years old and will turn 80 this year.
- He is the oldest person in American history to be inaugurated as president.
