This market resolved: Yes (99%)
Resolved: Oct 13, 2026, 10:44 PM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Data quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 14, 2026, 7:21 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Probability Timeline
Yes99%
No1%
Won
Lost
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?
Manifold MarketsWill Democrats win more than 230 seats in the House in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich party will win the U.S. House?
Kalshi2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
KalshiRules
Part of Matt Yglesias' "Predictions for 2026" from his Slow Boring newsletter.
- Source: [Predictions for 2026](https://www.slowboring.com/i/181456375/predictions-for) Yglesias assigned 80% probability to this prediction.
- Original prediction: "Social Democrats will win the most seats in Sweden's election" Resolution: Will resolve based on Yglesias' own assessment in his January 2027 review post.
- If he doesn't publish one, market creator will resolve based on the outcome.
