Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 70.2%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 29, 26, 5:04 PM UTCDec 1, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve YES if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Democratic Party wins at least 225 seats.
- Definition of "Democratic Seat": Any seat won by a candidate who ran on the Democratic ballot line.
- Independents who caucus with Democrats do not count toward this total unless they were elected as Democrats.
- Resolution Source: This market will resolve based on the "Partisan Breakdown" table provided by Ballotpedia (link below).
- Timing: Resolution will occur once Ballotpedia has called all 435 races.
- If any race is subject to a recount or legal challenge, resolution will be delayed until a winner is certified or conceded.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 70% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections? resolve?
- Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections? is scheduled to resolve on December 1, 2026.
- How is Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market will resolve YES if, following the 2026 United States House of Representatives elections, the Democratic Party wins at least 225 seats.