Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast0 72.9%Leader of 5 outcomes
Forecasters
30
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 7, 25, 5:48 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:
- @/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-formally-leave-the-OAASCz9ztA
- @/EvanDaniel/will-an-aboveground-nuclear-test-ta-dPUQqQCtQL
- @/EvanDaniel/will-there-be-a-newly-major-war-inv-2LO0IgPqzz
- @/IsaacKing/will-any-nuclear-weapon-be-detonate-602fc87e774f
- @/EvanDaniel/will-any-country-that-is-not-curren-pNszzP2O6E
Open markets
Geopolitics
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes??
- Manifold Markets prices 0 at 73% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? resolve?
- Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets: