Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes?

Frequently asked questions

What are the current odds for Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes??

Manifold Markets prices 0 at 72.9% as of October 30, 2026.

When does Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? resolve?

Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.

How is Nuclear Risk 2026: How many of the 6 linked markets resolve Yes? settled?

Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This is an attempt to make an overall risk index; it will resolve exactly according to these underlying markets:

Use this market in code or an AI agent

Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:

AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 28+0.7pt99%
• October 31-1.8pt93%
• November 2-4.4pt90%

+19 more outcomes

Total Vol

$30.9M

24h Vol

$1.6M

POLYMARKET

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?

• October 27+0.2pt100%
• October 29+0.5pt100%
• October 30+36.7pt99%

+39 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?

• March 31+2.5pt62%
• December 31+2.9pt42%
• November 30+3.0pt30%

+22 more outcomes

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

• No+0.1pt98%
• Yes-0.1pt2%

Total Vol

$45.4M

24h Vol

$257.4K

POLYMARKET

US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?

• Yes-4.0pt89.1%
• No+4.0pt10.9%

Total Vol

$1.7M

24h Vol

$223.8K

POLYMARKET

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

• No+1.0pt82.2%
• Yes-1.0pt17.8%

Total Vol

$76M

24h Vol

$192K

• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
• NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
• Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by which date?
• Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
• US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?