Macron leads EU before 2040?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffGeopoliticsEuropeCentral BanksElectionPolitics13yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 65.7%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 25, 2:50 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if Emmanuel Macron becomes the leader of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- Resolution criteria
- What “leader” means (any of these count)
- Head of state or head of government of the European Union or its successor polity (even if largely ceremonial), e.g., President, Prime Minister, Monarch/King/Emperor, Supreme/Paramount Leader, Regent, or military ruler (de facto or de jure).
- Top EU institutional chief whose role is commonly regarded as the EU’s primary political leadership, including President of the European Commission or President of the European Council (or any future office that replaces/combines them into the EU’s apex executive).
- Member of a collective top executive (e.g., co-presidency, triumvirate) where each member is officially a head of state/government of the EU/successor.