Macron leads EU before 2040?
Corporate ActionsOne-OffGeopoliticsEuropeCentral BanksElectionPolitics13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecast
No 65.7%
Forecasters
4
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleSep 2, 25, 2:50 PM UTCDec 31, 39, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next president of France after Macron?
Manifold MarketsMacron vs Owens: Who wins the defamation lawsuit?
MyriadMacron out by which date?
PolymarketBrigitte Macron wins defamation suit against Candace Owens before 2028?
KalshiIf a Macron-backed candidate fails to be elected president in 2027, will a far-right candidate win?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolves as YES if Emmanuel Macron becomes the leader of the European Union before January 1st 2040.
- Resolution criteria
- What “leader” means (any of these count)
- Head of state or head of government of the European Union or its successor polity (even if largely ceremonial), e.g., President, Prime Minister, Monarch/King/Emperor, Supreme/Paramount Leader, Regent, or military ruler (de facto or de jure).
- Top EU institutional chief whose role is commonly regarded as the EU’s primary political leadership, including President of the European Commission or President of the European Council (or any future office that replaces/combines them into the EU’s apex executive).
- Member of a collective top executive (e.g., co-presidency, triumvirate) where each member is officially a head of state/government of the EU/successor.
Open markets
Corporate ActionsPOLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-1.0pt86%
- November 30,-0.5pt85%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $2.7M
- 24h Vol
- $98.9K
KALSHIBoeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Above 56095%
- Above 580-1.0pt90%
- Above 60086%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $214.9K
- 24h Vol
- $48.6K
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028+2.0pt67%
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 more outcomes
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.1pt59.4%
- SpaceX-4.0pt38.5%
- OpenAI+0.3pt2.1%
+9 more outcomes
POLYMARKETIsrael Election: Zionist Home & Yashar Run on Same List?
- Yes+49.5pt99%
- No-49.5pt1%
- Total Vol
- $24.7K
- 24h Vol
- $23.6K
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 more outcomes
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will GameStop acquire eBay in 2026?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?
- Which companies will be acquired before 2027?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Macron leads EU before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 66% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Macron leads EU before 2040? resolve?
- Macron leads EU before 2040? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2039.
- How is Macron leads EU before 2040? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolves as YES if Emmanuel Macron becomes the leader of the European Union before January 1st 2040.