Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98.3%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 20 hours ago
StaleJan 25, 26, 7:33 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Kristi Noem be impeached by the house in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Kristi Noem announce she is divorcing her spouse, or will a divorce action be formally filed during the rest of '26
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Manifold MarketsKristi Noem Exit Date - 2026
Smarkets2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- Impeachment requires a simple majority in the House.
- This market resolves YES if the House of Representatives votes to impeach Kristi Noem by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by official House voting records available at Congress.gov.
- Any article of impeachment passing counts, even if a different one fails.
- [image](https://manifold.markets/embed/Jack1/kristi-noem-gone-as-secretary-of-ho)
Prediction Source Comparison
Open markets
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- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Total Vol
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- 24h Vol
- $945.4K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.5%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.5%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt13.4%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.7M
- 24h Vol
- $656.2K
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate-1.0pt15.5%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2M
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.4pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $858.7K
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva52%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+1.0pt45.1%
- Renan Santos+0.8pt2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)-1.0pt74%
- New People (NL)+0.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.2pt3%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026? resolve?
- Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria
- Where else is Kristi Noem impeached by the house in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Polymarket.