Manifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market is closed and awaiting confirmed resolution.
Resolved: Oct 28, 2026, 7:37 AM
Awaiting verified resolution
CoinRithm is waiting for provider-confirmed settlement before treating this market as resolved.
Probability Timeline
No general elections on or before the planned date (Oct 27 2026)2.4%
General attorney (Gali Baharav Miara) leaves position ahead of time0%
Head of the Internal Security Service (Ronen Bar) leaves position ahead of time100%
Netanyahu is forced to step down as Prime Minister for any reason other then health or losing elections0%
Another downgrading of Israel's credit rating by a major agency0%
Israel is downgraded in another major democracy index100%
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Awaiting result
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Ed Davey out as Liberal Democrats Leader by December 31?
PolymarketEd Davey announces departure as Liberal Democrats leader in 2026?
KalshiIf Trump is elected, will the US still be a liberal democracy at the end of his term? (V-DEM)
Manifold MarketsIran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsCapitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030
Manifold MarketsSeverance Fan Theories [add predictions]
Manifold MarketsRules
Please add your own predictions to this market.
- Update 2025-03-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Updated Resolution Criteria:
- Legislation Passage: The judicial overhaul legislation must be passed through the legislative process.
- Supreme Court Challenge: The legislation must withstand a Supreme Court challenge.
