Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastOther 54%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
14
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 16 hours ago
StaleMar 6, 22, 6:15 PM UTCJan 1, 00, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0.1%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?
Manifold MarketsWill the global financial/economic system experience a shock like 2008 in the next 5 years?
Manifold MarketsJobs numbers in Sep 2026?
KalshiUS defaults on debt by 2027?
PolymarketMore white-collar layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiRules
From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/
- Acceptable answers: full year, in format YYYY, i.e. "2022"
- Resolves to the year corresponding to the resolution made on the above Metaculus question. i.e. if the question resolves to "Mar 24, 2028", this market resolves to "2028".
Open markets
EconomyPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt53%
- No change-4.0pt47%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $104M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $376.2K
- 24h Vol
- $29K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $607.8K
- 24h Vol
- $20.8K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Total Vol
- $710.8K
- 24h Vol
- $14.9K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $12.2K
- 24h Vol
- $12.2K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $3.4M
- 24h Vol
- $8.9K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- United Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
- Germany’s government budget balance in 2026
- US real GDP growth in Q3 2026?
- Jobs numbers in Sep 2026?
- Mexico unemployment rate in August
- Unemployment in September
- More tech layoffs in 2026 than in 2025?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur??
- Manifold Markets prices Other at 54% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? resolve?
- In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2100.
- How is In what year will the next great financial crisis in the US occur? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: From https://www.metaculus.com/questions/7467/next-great-financial-crisis-in-the-us/