Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.1%
Forecasters
16
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 3 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 23, 6:32 PM UTCDec 26, 23, 7:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
In which years will Trump Serve Time? [Unlinked Multiple Choice]
Manifold MarketsTen years after Trump’s departure from politics, will he see a George Bush style approval ratings bump?
Manifold MarketsWill one-boxers be more aligned with the Pope or the US President on July 31, 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
PredictItWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
US PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $213.6M
- 24h Vol
- $689.3K
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $701.2M
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $14.5M
- 24h Vol
- $256.3K
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $28.3M
- 24h Vol
- $249.6K
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for In 100 years (2123) will Trump worship will be a thing??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does In 100 years (2123) will Trump worship will be a thing? resolve?
- In 100 years (2123) will Trump worship will be a thing? is scheduled to resolve on December 26, 2123.