If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEurope
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.2%
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37
Question type
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
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Updated 2 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 22, 9:56 AM UTCDec 31, 52, 10:59 PM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.
- This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above.
- Or if the year ends without ceasefire
- This question resolves "NO" If - Ukraine complies to these terms - Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms - Ukraine has not broken these terms - Russia violates the treaty anyway within 30 years of signing.
- If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes".
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