If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineEuropeManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 51.2%
Forecasters
37
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 8, 22, 9:56 AM UTCDec 31, 52, 10:59 PM UTC
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FutuurRules
Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.
- This question resolves N/A if the war in Ukraine ends or reaches longterm ceasefire, but under different conditions than outlined above.
- Or if the year ends without ceasefire
- This question resolves "NO" If - Ukraine complies to these terms - Russia at any moment agrees that they have complied to these terms - Ukraine has not broken these terms - Russia violates the treaty anyway within 30 years of signing.
- If Ukraine breaks the treaty or 30 years pass without incident, this question will resolve "Yes".
- Mar 8, 11:10am: Use loans if you want to invest into in this market
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years??
- Manifold Markets prices Yes at 51% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? resolve?
- If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2052.
- How is If Ukraine accepts the peace deal Russia offers, will Russia keep it for at least 30 years? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Currently the Peace deal Russia is offering is as follows - Ukraine recognises Crimea as Russian territory - Ukraine recognises the independence of the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk - Ukraine does not join the EU or NATO - Ukraine changes its constitiution to enshrine neutrality.