If Trump won the election, Will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than it was in 2022?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection2mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 96.4%
Forecasters
32
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 24, 5:59 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 5:59 AM UTC
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KalshiRules
If Trump won the election, will the U.S. be more democratic in 2025 than 2022?
- This market will resolve YES if the 2025 democracy index for the United States released by the EIU is higher than 7.85, NO if it's less than or equal to 7.85
- Resolves NA if Trump didnt win the 2024 presidential election
- Economic Intelligence Unit's Democracy Index https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Economist_Democracy_Index
- Compare the price against this market to estimate if Trump will worsen Democracy in the US
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/AmmonLam/if-biden-won-the-election-will-the)