How many Trump-won districts will Democrats win in 2026?
10.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
At least 10 · —
Loading selected book…
—
Stored price
At least 40 45%Market line of 13 lines
At least 40 45%Market quality
43 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$659.3
Open interest
$4K
Medium open interestBid / Ask
— / —
At least 10Spread
—
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
Aug 20, 26, 2:00 PM UTCDec 15, 26, 2:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · At least 10
Loading selected book…
—
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which Texas House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich New York House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich Florida House Districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWhich Iowa congressional districts will the Democrats win in the 2026 midterms?
Manifold MarketsWill Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketWill Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?
PolymarketRules
If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The qualifying districts are the 235 in which Trump received more votes than Harris in 2024, as calculated by The Downballot in its 2024 presidential results by congressional district table, for the district boundaries in use at the 2026 elections. That list is fixed as of Issuance and identified by state and district number, so later boundary changes and revisions to the 2024 vote totals do NOT add or remove districts. A district counts only if the candidate elected there at the November 3, 2026 general election, for the term beginning January 3, 2027, is listed on the ballot as a Democrat (including Minnesota's Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party), including as preferring the Democratic Party where a state uses an open, top-two or top-four ballot. If a runoff is required to determine the winner of any race, the runoff result governs. Independent and third-party winners do NOT count, even if they caucus with Democrats.
Rules for each outcome
- At least 10
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 10 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 19
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 19 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 22
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 22 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 13
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 16
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 16 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 25
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 25 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 28
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 28 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 31
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 31 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 35
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 35 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 40
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 40 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 46
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 46 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 52
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 52 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- At least 58
- If the number of Democratic U.S. House members elected from the 235 districts that Donald Trump carried in 2024 is at least 58 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.