IF there is a war between China and the United States, will China use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear strikes to the US?
GeopoliticsOne-OffChina13y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75.5%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleDec 18, 23, 5:48 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 3:59 PM UTC
Trends
Rules
The US has for decades operated under the understanding that neither it nor its adversaries would use ICBMs to deliver non-nuclear payloads because they would be indistinguishable from a first-use nuclear strike*, which would mean their use would risk a nuclear response even before they hit.
- However, there is a growing school of thought that China may disagree with this doctrinally, and may not bind itself by the same restriction.
- *clearly this statement can be interrogated
- https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/China-expanding-ways-to-target-continental-U.S.-Pentagon-report-says
- Resolves NA if there is no war between China and the US before 2040.
- Resolves YES if China uses Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles to strike the continental US or Hawaii (not US Territories), and those missiles deliver non-nuclear payloads.
