If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028
GeopoliticsOne-Off1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.3%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 10 hours ago
StaleMar 22, 24, 9:41 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRules
Conditional market.
- If Kenya does not lead a military intervention by 2026 this will resolve N/A
- Sister market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/NivlacM/if-the-us-leads-a-military-interven)Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that for this market, the distinction between a 'military intervention' by Kenya and 'sending policemen' is not meaningful.
- The current Kenyan intervention (e.g., related to sending policemen) will count as a 'military intervention'.