If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028
GeopoliticsOne-Off1yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.3%
Forecasters
11
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 hours ago
StaleMar 22, 24, 9:41 PM UTCJan 2, 28, 6:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the 2027 Finnish parliamentary elections be held on April 18, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWho will win Uttar Pradesh State Elections held in Jan - March 2027?
Manifold MarketsForeign intervention in Gaza by which date?
PolymarketAfter the war in Ukraine ends, which of the following regions (oblasts) will be held by Ukraine?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRules
Conditional market.
- If Kenya does not lead a military intervention by 2026 this will resolve N/A
- Sister market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/NivlacM/if-the-us-leads-a-military-interven)Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that for this market, the distinction between a 'military intervention' by Kenya and 'sending policemen' is not meaningful.
- The current Kenyan intervention (e.g., related to sending policemen) will count as a 'military intervention'.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028?
- Manifold Markets prices No at 77% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028 resolve?
- If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028 is scheduled to resolve on January 2, 2028.
- How is If Kenya leads a military intervention in Haiti will democratic elections be held before 2028 settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Conditional market.