If elected, will Zohran Mamdani maintain a net positive approval rating by August 2028?
PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsElection1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 65.7%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 14 hours ago
StaleAug 24, 25, 6:33 PM UTCAug 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, conditional on Zohran Mamdani being elected New York City mayor in November 2025 and taking office on January 1, 2026, the latest publicly released poll with fieldwork ending between August 1–31, 2028 measuring “job approval” of Mayor Zohran Mamdani among NYC adults, registered voters, or likely voters shows Approve > Disapprove (net approval > 0).
- Ties (Approve = Disapprove) resolve NO.
- Favorability-only polls do not count.
- Examples of qualifying pollsters include Quinnipiac University Poll and Marist Poll; results will be verified from their official releases.
- (poll.qu.edu, maristpoll.marist.edu)
