If Republicans win the 2024 U.S. presidency, will an AI kill 10% of the human population before 2028?
PoliticsAIOne-OffUS PoliticsElectionGeopolitics1y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
19
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 44 minutes ago
May 6, 23, 2:39 AM UTCJan 5, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
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Rules
Doesn't count if the AI was just following human directions.
- E.g. if humans escalate to a nuclear war, and the launch process happens to involve an AI, that's not the spirit of the question.
- It should be an accident, or an "unaligned" AI.
- If instead the Democrat wins the POTUS 2024 election, then we resolve this N/A to refund the trades.
- We would then look to the sibling question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ScroogeMcDuck/if-democrats-wins-the-2024-us-presi)
