If a Republican wins the presidency in 2028, will U.S. real GDP shrink in any quarter of 2029 or 2030?
EconomyOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsElection4y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 61.9%
Forecasters
1
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 17 hours ago
StaleOct 7, 26, 2:52 AM UTCFeb 15, 31, 5:00 PM UTC
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Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
Condition: the Republican Party's 2028 presidential nominee wins the 2028 presidential election, as determined by Congress's count of electoral votes in January 2029 (or, if no one has a majority, the House's choice).
- If anyone else wins, this market resolves N/A. Resolves YES if the Bureau of Economic Analysis's advance estimate of real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) is negative for any quarter of 2029 or 2030.
- Uses each quarter's advance estimate as first published; later revisions don't count.
- Resolves once the Q4 2030 advance estimate is out.
- This is one half of a conditional pair; its twin asks the same question if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2028.
