Current community forecast
He declines to run a third time and steps down 77%Leader of 13 outcomes
Forecasters
104
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleApr 19, 25, 3:44 PM UTCJan 26, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
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Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
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KalshiHow many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
KalshiRules
This question is intended to be comprehensive for all possible ways trump’s second term could end.
- Update 2025-04-28 (PST): - If Trump is impeached and then resigns before or during the Senate trial, the market will be resolved as resigns.
- (AI summary of creator comment)
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Trump tries to run for a third term and fails (e.g. is prevented from being placed on the ballot by a court decision), the market will resolve as "runs and loses".
