Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastDismissed on procedural grounds 56.5%Leader of 6 outcomes
Forecasters
12
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 12 hours ago
StaleMar 31, 26, 9:21 PM UTCDec 31, 27, 10:16 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the White House Ballroom case by the end of their 2026-2027 term?
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PredictItRules
Buckets here are trying their best to be mutually exclusive.
- Resolves to whatever happens in the highest / last court to rule on this case (NTHP v the US)
- Trump / Defendants Win on Merits (Executive Authority Affirmed): The highest court rules that the administration does possess the statutory or constitutional authority to proceed with the privately funded construction, permanently lifting the injunction based on the merits of the case.
- the named outcome (Injunction Upheld): The highest court to issue a final ruling affirms Judge Leon's core argument—that the executive branch lacks the authority to execute this specific project without express Congressional authorization.
- The injunction becomes permanent.
- Dismissal on Procedural Grounds (Standing / Justiciability): An appellate court or the Supreme Court throws the case out without ruling on the underlying executive power question.
