How many Palestinian prisoners will Israel release in exchange for Hamas hostages?
Middle EastOne-OffManifold MarketsClosedNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedThis market resolved: 4001-5000 (47.7%)
Resolved: Aug 7, 2026, 5:05 AM
Provider-verified resolution
CoinRithm has provider-backed winner and settlement-time evidence for this market.
Current community forecast4001-5000 47.7%Leader of 10 outcomes
Forecasters
38
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 25 days ago
StaleNov 2, 23, 4:12 AMJan 2, 26, 4:59 AM
Probability Timeline
00.5%
1-10000.9%
1001-20003.7%
2001-30007.3%
3001-400037.1%
4001-500047.7%
5001-60001.6%
6001-80000.4%
8001-10,0000.4%
>10,0000.4%
47.7%
37.1%
7.3%
3.7%
1.6%
0.9%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
Rules
Hamas has announced that they will release the Israeli hostages in the Gaza strip in exchange for all Palestinian prisoners in Israel.
- According to Al Jazeera, there are more than 10,000 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails.
- This question resolves to the total number of Palestinian prisoners who are released by Israel in exchanges for the return of hostages held by Hamas.
- If it is determined that all hostages have been rescued, released, or died before closing, this question may resolve early.
- If no Palestinian prisoners have been released in such exchanges by closing, resolves to 0.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Detainees are counted as prisoners for the purposes of this market.
