Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastElectoral Autocracy 38.7%Leader of 4 outcomes
Forecasters
2
Question type
multiple choice
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
7d Change
0.0 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleSep 24, 25, 4:11 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Israel and Syria normalize relations by which date?
PolymarketAhmed al-Sharaa out as leader of Syria by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill the US reopen its embassy in Syria?
KalshiWill more than 100.000 Syrians return to Syria from Germany by March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the United States cease its military campaign in Syria by 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Israel withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria by EOY 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Open markets
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.1pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $29.9M
- 24h Vol
- $807.7K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 more outcomes
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 more outcomes
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Total Vol
- $8M
- 24h Vol
- $125K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Total Vol
- $1.7M
- 24h Vol
- $121.5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How democratic will Syria be in 2026, according to V-DEM??
- Manifold Markets prices Electoral Autocracy at 39% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How democratic will Syria be in 2026, according to V-DEM? resolve?
- How democratic will Syria be in 2026, according to V-DEM? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.